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Thursday, August 28, 2008
Last Updted: 3:20 AM GMT

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National News
Peter Brimelow: Negative real interest rates may frighten the Fed
All Federal Reserve board members reportedly want to raise interest rates -- albeit not just yet. Reason: behind the growth slowdown, real interest rates have turned dramatically negative.
MarketWatch Financial - 8/28/2008 - 23 hours 23 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Treasurys edge higher amid Fannie, Freddie worries
Treasury bonds rebounded Wednesday to finish slightly higher amid uncertainty over whether troubled mortgage financiers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would need a government bailout.
The Washingtion Times Business - 8/28/2008 - 23 hours 21 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

3 top Fannie Mae executives to leave company
Fannie Mae says three top executives are leaving as the mortgage finance company aims to cope with mounting losses from the mortgage crisis.
The Washingtion Times Business - 8/28/2008 - 23 hours 21 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Survey shows workers are anxious about jobs
American workers’ confidence in the job market is as low as it was during the 2001 recession, according to a survey released Thursday.
NBC Business - 8/28/2008 - 22 hours 45 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Survey: US workers' confidence in job market sags
American workers' confidence in the job market is as low as it was during the 2001 recession, according to a survey released Thursday.
The Washingtion Times Business - 8/28/2008 - 21 hours 21 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Hedge fund manager settles fraud suit
A prominent hedge fund manager agreed to a $100,000 penalty and a five-year ban on acting as an investment adviser to settle a Securities and Exchange Commission lawsuit that accused him of misleading clients who invested $20 million in real estate, the SEC...
San Francisco Chronicle Business - 8/28/2008 - 19 hours 25 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Asia Markets: Tokyo reverses gains, as Sydney stocks rally
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- Asian markets were mixed Thursday, with Australian stocks climbing on resource shares like BHP Billiton as crude-oil prices edged higher. Japanese stocks reversed early gains as exporters and real-estate shares dropped on concerns about a slowing global and domestic economy.
MarketWatch Top Stories - 8/28/2008 - Comment on this Article

Fannie Shuffles Its Top Leaders
Struggling mortgage giant Fannie Mae shook up its senior management yesterday, announcing the departure of its chief financial officer and two other top executives.
Washington Post Business - 8/28/2008 - 23 hours 25 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Midday Glance: Homebuilders companies
NEW YORK (AP) - Shares of some top homebuilders companies are mixed at noon:
MSN Money Central - 8/28/2008 - 23 hours 25 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Early Glance: Homebuilders companies
NEW YORK (AP) - Shares of some top homebuilders companies are mixed at 10 a.m.:
MSN Money Central - 8/28/2008 - 23 hours 25 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Indications: U.S. stock futures flattish; GDP on tap
U.S. stock futures were flattish Thursday as oil and natural-gas futures continued to advance as fears about Tropical Storm Gustav remained and as markets awaited another estimate of the economy’s performance during the second quarter.
MarketWatch Top Stories - 8/28/2008 - 15 hours 24 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Europe Markets: Banks help European shares off lows, autos lower
European shares pulled back from early lows on Thursday as a strong performance from French banking giant Credit Agricole helped financials to move higher, although firmer oil prices continued to dampen sentiment towards autos.
MarketWatch Top Stories - 8/28/2008 - 15 hours 24 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Futures slip as oil rises
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stock index futures fell on Thursday as the price of oil rose for a fourth day, overshadowing optimism among financial companies about the largest U.S. mortgage finance company Fannie Mae .
Reuters Business - 8/28/2008 - 15 hours 23 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

GDP Gives A Ray Of Light
Strong exports helped the American economy expand more than expected in the second quarter.
Forbes Market News - 8/28/2008 - 10 hours 44 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Sears' 2Q profit drops 62 percent
Sears Holdings Corp. said second-quarter profit fell 62 percent drop as the retailer continues to struggle to attract customers to its stores despite a high-stakes restructuring. The company also said that it expects that its sales and gross profit margins will continue to be pressured as it sees no near-term improvement in the economy.
The Washingtion Times Business - 8/28/2008 - 15 hours 57 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Sears' 2Q profit drops 62 percent
NEW YORK---- Sears Holdings Corp. said second-quarter profit fell 62 percent drop as the retailer continues to struggle to attract customers to its stores despite a high-stakes restructuring. The company also said it expects its sales and gross profit margins will continue to be pressured as it sees no near-term improvement in the economy.
Chicago Sun Times Business - 8/28/2008 - 15 hours 25 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Economic Report: U.S. Q2 GDP surges 3.3%, could be high-water mark
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. economic growth in the second quarter was a whole lot stronger than previously believed, but may represent the high-water mark for the economy for at least the next year.
MarketWatch Financial - 8/28/2008 - 14 hours 44 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Q2 growth revised to 3.3 percent
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. economy expanded at a stronger-than-first-reported 3.3 percent annual rate in the second quarter, as consumer spending and net exports were more robust than initially estimated and inventories fell less sharply, a government report showed on Thursday.
Reuters Business - 8/28/2008 - 14 hours 44 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Economy rebounds, mostly spurred by exports
The government says the economy shifted to a higher gear in the spring, growing at its fastest pace in nearly a year. Foreign buyers snapped up U.S. exports and tax rebates spurred shoppers at home contributing to the rebound.
The Washingtion Times Business - 8/28/2008 - 14 hours 38 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Aug. British home prices post biggest annual drop since 1990
British house prices continue to fall at a rapid rate, with the average home in August fetching 10.5% less than it did a year ago, mortgage lender Nationwide reports Thursday in its monthly survey.
MarketWatch Top Stories - 8/28/2008 - 19 hours 24 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Destination D.C.
The number of visitors to Washington rose in 2007 and is holding steady this year, though tourism officials are bracing for a decline in 2009 because of the weakening U.S. economy, according to statistics released Wednesday.
The Washingtion Times Business - 8/28/2008 - 18 hours 39 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Durable goods boost stocks
NEW YORK (AP) | Wall Street advanced Wednesday after the government reported a larger-than-expected increase in orders for big-ticket manufactured goods that indicate the economy could be stronger than some investors thought.
The Washingtion Times Business - 8/28/2008 - 18 hours 39 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Thrifts' losses second largest
U.S. thrifts lost $5.4 billion in the second quarter and set aside a record amount to cover losses from bad mortgages and other loans.
The Washingtion Times Business - 8/28/2008 - 18 hours 39 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Toyota cuts 2009 sales target by 6.7% as U.S. demand eases
Toyota Motor Corp. Thursday cut its global-sales target for next year by 6.7%, as higher gasoline prices and the slowing economy hurt demand in the U.S., its largest market, media reports say.
MarketWatch Top Stories - 8/28/2008 - 18 hours 5 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

German unemployment slips lower, gov't says
Unemployment in Germany fell slightly in August despite slumping business and consumer confidence in Europe's biggest economy, the federal employment office said Thursday.
Boston Globe - 8/28/2008 - 17 hours 25 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Fannie Mae unveils management shakeup
The headquarters of mortgage lender Fannie Mae is shown in Washington in this file photo from October 3, 2006. Mortgage-finance company Fannie Mae  on Wednesday announced a management shake-up in an effort to come to grips with mounting credit losses and a shrinking capital base.

NBC Business - 8/28/2008 - 16 hours 45 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Sears' 2Q profit drops 62 percent
NEW YORK (AP) -- Sears Holdings Corp. said second-quarter profit fell 62 percent drop as the retailer continues to struggle to attract customers to its stores despite a high-stakes restructuring. The company also said that it expects that its sales and gross profit margins will continue to be pressured as it sees no near-term improvement in the economy....
Associated Press Business - 8/28/2008 - 16 hours 5 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Survey: US workers' confidence in job market sags
NEW YORK (AP) -- American workers' confidence in the job market is as low as it was during the 2001 recession, according to a survey released Thursday....
Associated Press Business - 8/28/2008 - 16 hours 5 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Sears Holdings profit falls short
ATLANTA (Reuters) - Sears Holdings Corp posted quarterly profit that fell short of expectations on Thursday as the retailer cut prices to lure shoppers amid a U.S. housing slump that hurt appliance and tool sales.
Reuters Business - 8/28/2008 - 16 hours 4 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Apple's 'missing iPhone' problem
With legions of users abroad 'unlocking' the red-hot phones from Apple's carrier and with a product line vulnerable to a US recession, the electronics innovator is losing out both here and abroad.
CNBC Money Central Latest - 8/28/2008 - 20 hours 5 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Aug. British house prices saw 10.5% annual drop: Nationwide
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- The average British house price saw a monthly decline of 1.9% in August, mortgage-lender Nationwide reported Thursday. Prices have fallen by 10.5% compared to August last year, marking the first double-digit decline in the annual rate since the fourth quarter of 1990, Nationwide said. Consensus expectations were for a 1.6% monthly fall and a 9.9% annual decline, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey of economists.
MarketWatch Personal Stories - 8/28/2008 - 20 hours 5 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Stocks rise following gain in durable goods orders
Wall Street posted a sizable advance Wednesday after the government reported a larger-than-expected increase in orders for big-ticket manufactured goods that indicated the economy could be stronger than some investors thought.
The Washingtion Times Business - 8/28/2008 - 19 hours 57 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Stocks & Bonds: Report Signaling Consumer Confidence Lifts Markets
Wall Street posted a big advance after a larger-than-expected increase in orders for durable goods, indicating that the economy is stronger than many investors thought.


New York Times Business - 8/28/2008 - 14 hours 5 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Economic growth revised higher
The economy shifted to a higher gear in the spring, growing at its fastest pace in nearly a year as foreign buyers snapped up U.S. exports and tax rebates spurred shoppers at home.
NBC Business - 8/28/2008 - 14 hours 5 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Cattles Milks Cautious Lending Trend
British subprime lender sees an increase in arrears, but its prospects look good.
Forbes Market News - 8/28/2008 - 14 hours 5 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Final Glance: Homebuilders companies
NEW YORK (AP) - Shares of some top homebuilders companies were up at the close of trading:
MSN Money Central - 8/28/2008 - 13 hours 25 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Stocks open higher following GDP, jobs data
NEW YORK---- Stocks extended their advance in early trading Thursday following a better-than-expected reading on the nation's economy and a drop in jobless claims.
Chicago Sun Times Business - 8/28/2008 - 12 hours 45 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Economy rebounds in 2Q, mostly spurred by exports
WASHINGTON---- The economy shifted to a higher gear in the spring, growing at its fastest pace in nearly a year as foreign buyers snapped up U.S. exports and tax rebates spurred shoppers at home.
Chicago Sun Times Business - 8/28/2008 - 12 hours 45 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Sears Holdings profit falls short, forecast cut
Sears Holdings Corp posted a quarterly profit that fell far short of Wall Street expectations and cut its full-year earnings forecast as consumers scaled back shopping in a weak U.S. economy.
MSN Money Central - 8/28/2008 - 12 hours 45 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Savills Values For Money
A scramble for real estate valuations has helped the British property firm Savills.
Forbes Market News - 8/28/2008 - 12 hours 45 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Dollar mixed as oil rolls beneath $118
The dollar was mixed Thursday morning, trading erratically as the price of oil went through some big swings and a report showed strong U.S. economy growth in the second quarter.
Boston Globe - 8/28/2008 - 10 hours 45 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Toyota Cuts Sales Goal
Toyota lowered its global sales target for 2009 by 700,000 vehicles to 9.7 million Thursday, citing gas prices and the slow down of the economy.


New York Times Business - 8/28/2008 - 10 hours 45 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Tiffany Sparkles While Others Rust
Retailers have mixed results in the down economy.
Forbes Market News - 8/28/2008 - 10 hours 44 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Work harder, take home less
For most of the past decade, the economy grew much stronger - but middle-class Americans had little to show for it.
CNN Top Stories - 8/28/2008 - 15 hours 24 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Workers Not Confident In U.S. Job Market
American workers' confidence in the job market is as low as it was during the 2001 recession, according to a survey released.
CBS Top Stories - 8/28/2008 - 15 hours 24 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Judge orders state to enforce housing rules
A judge is ordering the Vermont Department of Public Safety to enforce state building codes for rental housing.
Boston Globe - 8/28/2008 - 10 hours 5 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

J. Crew Unglued
A bad economy and some techie malfunctions hit J. Crew where it hurts.
Motley Fool - 8/28/2008 - 9 hours 25 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Spring’s economic rebound is unlikely to last
The biggest factor in the GDP's second-quarter rebound was robust sales of U.S. exports.The economy pulled out of a dangerous rough patch in the spring, thanks largely to strong exports, but the rebound isn't expected to last. Economic slowdowns overseas could make exports tail off just as Americans are hunkering down after the bracing impact of rebate checks wanes, plunging the country into another rut later this year.

NBC Business - 8/28/2008 - 8 hours 5 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

U.S. Mortgage Meltdown Slams Bank Of China
Bank of China was the most vulnerable of its peers, thanks to the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis.
Forbes Market News - 8/28/2008 - 6 hours 5 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Three Things Candidates Won't Tell You
For all their talk, neither Obama nor McCain want to tackle the economy's really tough issues--because they can't.
Forbes Personal Finance - 8/28/2008 - 6 hours 5 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Economy Rebounds in 2Q, Spurred by Exports
U.S. economic growth accelerated from April to June as taxpayers spent their federal rebate checks and a weakened dollar boosted exports, the government reported today.
Washington Post Economy - 8/28/2008 - 5 hours 25 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Businesses Cite a Catch-22 After Miss. Immigration Raid
The arrests this week of nearly 600 immigrant workers at a manufacturing plant in Laurel, Miss., are fueling a national debate over a federal system to check new hires' work documents, a program whose expansion the Bush administration has made a cornerstone of its fight against illegal immigration.
Washington Post Economy - 8/28/2008 - 5 hours 25 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

High & Low Finance: Economic Sense and Political Reality
In 1974, the country had a president who actually wanted to confront the issue of high oil prices and the proposals made then seem highly relevant now.


New York Times Business - 8/28/2008 - 5 hours 25 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Exports Give U.S. Economy 2Q Spurt
After two dismal quarters, the U.S. economy shifted to a higher gear in the spring, growing at its fastest pace in nearly a year as foreign buyers snapped up U.S. exports and tax rebates spurred shoppers at home.
CBS Business - 8/28/2008 - 5 hours 24 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Exports Help Spur 2nd Qtr Economy
The economy shifted to a higher gear in the spring, growing at its fastest pace in nearly a year as foreign buyers snapped up U.S. exports
Time Magazine Top Stories - 8/28/2008 - 5 hours 24 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Obama supporters are invested in the 'change' mantra
Gina Nettle carves out her own piece of personal real estate amid discarded buffalo dogs and soda cups in the packed Pepsi Center hallway here, when she is asked about the star quality of Sen. Barack Obama.
MarketWatch Top Stories - 8/28/2008 - 5 hours 24 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Mortgages: Fixed-rate mortgages fall, ARMs rise this week: Freddie Mac
Mortgage rates on fixed-rate loans fell this week, following reports of weakness in the economy, Freddie Mac’s chief economist said on Thursday. But rates on adjustable-rate mortgages rose slightly.
MarketWatch Personal Stories - 8/28/2008 - 5 hours 24 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Financial Stocks: Bond and mortgage insurers jump on MBIA deal
Shares of mortgage and bond insurers rally Thursday on news that MBIA Inc. is in a deal to reinsure billions of dollars in municipal bonds, showing the embattled bond insurer is able to attract new business despite the credit crunch.
MarketWatch Financial - 8/28/2008 - 5 hours 24 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

State economists forecast ‘low growth or recession’
State economists said Thursday that Oregon will continue to see a drop in employment through the first quarter of 2009, adding that the economy likely will not improve until the end of 2009 or the beginning of 2010.
Bizjournals Economic Snapshot - 8/28/2008 - 5 hours 23 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Commerce revises second-quarter growth figures from 1.9 to 3.3 percent
Recession? What recession?
Bizjournals Economic Snapshot - 8/28/2008 - 5 hours 23 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Stocks climb as GDP expands, crude oil swoons
Stocks ended the day higher Thursday on a better-than-expected reading on the nation's economy and a drop in jobless claims.
USA Today Money - 8/28/2008 - 5 hours 23 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

30-year mortgages fall to 6.40%, lowest level in 6 weeks
Rates on 30-year mortgages fell for the second straight week, declining to the lowest level in more than a month.
USA Today Money - 8/28/2008 - 5 hours 23 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Economy grows faster in second quarter
The U.S. economy grew much faster during the second quarter than originally reported, the Commerce Department said Thursday. Analysts, however, expect growth to falter significantly during the current quarter and turn negative before the end of the year.
The Washington Times - 8/28/2008 - 5 hours 23 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Treasurys fall as investors move back into stocks
Treasury bonds mostly fell Thursday after a government report indicated the economy grew at a faster pace during the second quarter and at least temporarily eased investors' need for safe-haven bets.
The Washingtion Times Business - 8/28/2008 - 5 hours 23 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Stocks jump on better-than-expected GDP, jobs data
Wall Street barreled higher Thursday after a better-than-expected reading on the gross domestic product and a drop in jobless claims gave investors some reassurance that the economy is holding up. The Dow Jones industrial average jumped more than 200 points.
The Washingtion Times Business - 8/28/2008 - 5 hours 23 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Spring's economic rebound unlikely to last
The economy pulled out of a dangerous rough patch in the spring, thanks largely to strong exports, but the rebound isn't expected to last. Economic slowdowns overseas could make exports tail off just as Americans are hunkering down after the bracing impact of rebate checks wanes, plunging the country into another rut later this year.
The Washingtion Times Business - 8/28/2008 - 5 hours 23 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

In Pictures: 10 Ways To Boost Employee Morale
Penny-pinching tips to combat malaise in a tough economy.
MSN Money Central - 8/28/2008 - 4 hours 45 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Dollar rises as oil retreats, US economy grew
The dollar rose Thursday against most makor currencies, notching a 25-month high against the pound, as a report showed strong U.S. economic growth in the second quarter and crude prices retreated from their day's high above $120 a barrel.
Boston Globe - 8/28/2008 - 4 hours 5 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Fannie Mae Workers Watch Stock Plan Dwindle
The employees of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are reeling from financial blows as the mortgage finance companies lurch toward what could be a government bailout.


New York Times Business - 8/28/2008 - 4 hours 5 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

How To Boost Employee Morale On A Budget
Penny-pinching tips to combat malaise in a tough economy.
Forbes Headlines - 8/28/2008 - 4 hours 2 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Realty Q&A: Weak housing market makes estate planning more difficult
I am the designated executor of my father's estate. His current home in New Mexico is fully mortgaged and based on the current real estate market, it probably will not have much value, if any, above the existing mortgage.
MarketWatch Top Stories - 8/28/2008 - 3 hours 24 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Fannie's capital better than market perceptions: Lehman
(Reuters) - Fannie Mae's capital and reserves positions are better than market expectations, according to an analyst at Lehman Brothers, who also said the biggest U.S. mortgage finance company may not need any more externally raised capital.
Reuters Business - 8/28/2008 - 15 hours 23 minutes ago - Comment on this Article




Metropolitan News
Blight next door
The problem of abandoned, foreclosed houses is giving municipalities a big headache. As a wave of foreclosures sweeps the country, some residents and officials are taking a harder look at properties that have been forsaken by their owners and left to deteriorate.
Boston Globe Massachusetts - 8/28/2008 - 20 hours 45 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Corporate America taking longer to collect: study
Corporate America is having the hardest time getting its customers to pay their bills since the last U.S. recession in 2001, according to a study released on Wednesday.
Boston Globe Massachusetts - 8/28/2008 - 23 hours 25 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

. . . Free for the taking, but take it you must
IPSWICH - Even in a housing market like this one, the town of Ipswich is offering a pretty interesting deal.
Boston Globe Massachusetts - 8/28/2008 - 20 hours 45 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Bank of America redeems $43m in securities
The state says Bank of America has agreed to redeem $43 million in auction rate securities held by the Massachusetts Turnpike Authority and one of the state's housing agencies.
Boston Globe Massachusetts - 8/28/2008 - 23 hours 25 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Kukui Gardens top Hawaii deal of '07-'08
The sale of Kukui Gardens was the biggest Hawaii real estate deal for the 12 months ending June 30, according to PBN research.
Bizjournals Honolulu - 8/28/2008 - Comment on this Article

Through snow, rain, heat and gloom of night for 232 years
The Worcester Post Office these days is quite an operation. Postmaster Stephen Rossetti presides over 425 employees, 175 cars and trucks and various parcels of real estate, including the main post office and several branches. The team makes about 80,000 deliveries daily to postal boxes at homes, businesses and other destinations. The number of letters, packages, etc. is in the hundreds of thousands.
Worcester Telegram Op Ed - 8/28/2008 - 18 hours 45 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Sears' 2Q profit drops 62 percent
NEW YORK (AP) -- Sears Holdings Corp. said second-quarter profit fell 62 percent drop as the retailer continues to struggle to attract customers to its stores despite a high-stakes restructuring. The company also said that it expects that its sales and gross profit margins will continue to be pressured as it sees no near-term improvement in the economy....
Cape Cod Times Business - 8/28/2008 - 16 hours 5 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Survey: US workers' confidence in job market sags
NEW YORK (AP) -- American workers' confidence in the job market is as low as it was during the 2001 recession, according to a survey released Thursday....
Cape Cod Times Business - 8/28/2008 - 16 hours 5 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

West End Tampa sells first project for $47.3 million
In Hillsborough County’s second largest deal of the year, a residential real estate investment trust paid $43.7 million for an upscale apartment complex nearing completion in West End Tampa. (UDR)
Boston Business Journal - 8/28/2008 - 15 hours 25 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Home prices drop by record amount in June, index shows
NEW YORK (AP) _ A widely watched index released Tuesday showed home prices dropping by the sharpest rate ever in the second quarter, but the data for June suggest the severity of the housing slump may be waning.
Baltimore Sun Real Estate - 8/28/2008 - 14 hours 3 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Troubled banks increase in 2Q; profits down 86%
WASHINGTON The number of troubled U.S. banks leaped to the highest level in about five years and bank profits plunged by 86 percent in the second quarter, as slumps in the housing and credit markets continued. Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. data released yesterday show 117 banks and thrifts were considered to be in trouble in the second quarter, up from 90 in the prior quarter. The FDIC also said that federally insured banks and savings institutions earned $5 billion in the April-June period, down from $36.8 billion a year earlier. The roughly 8,500 banks and thrifts set aside a record $50.2 billion to cover losses from soured mortgages and other loans in the second quarter.
Baltimore Sun Top Business - 8/28/2008 - 14 hours 3 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Southwest to eliminate 200 flights, 14 at BWI, next year
Southwest Airlines Co. will eliminate nearly 200 flights early next year as it struggles with high fuel costs and a weakening economy. The move raised doubts about the company's publicly stated goal of growing modestly in 2009 despite the airline industry's troubles. Southwest will cut 196 flights while adding only six new ones in its schedule that takes effect Jan. 11. That is nearly 6 percent of the airline's daily schedule. The airline, which is the largest carrier at Baltimore-Washington International Thurgood Marshall Airport, will eliminate 14 of its 162 flights there. The flights are to cities that include Chicago, San Diego, Detroit and West Palm Beach, Fla. The airline will add a flight to Orlando, Fla., from BWI. Southwest spokesman Chris Mainz said that some of the eliminated flights, which span Southwest's nationwide network, could be restored later in 2009. Late winter is typically a slow travel period.
Baltimore Sun Top Business - 8/28/2008 - 14 hours 3 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Kukui Gardens top Hawaii deal of '07-'08
The sale of Kukui Gardens was the biggest Hawaii real estate deal for the 12 months ending June 30, according to PBN research.
Bizjournals Honolulu - 8/28/2008 - 13 hours 23 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Saratoga, rural counties rank high in housing growth
Saratoga County’s housing stock grew faster than any other county in the state except Orange County between 2000 and 2007, according to a new U.S. Census Bureau report.
Boston Business Journal - 8/28/2008 - 5 hours 25 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Sibcy Cline enters Middletown/Monroe market
Residential real estate firm Sibcy Cline Realtors has opened its first office in the Middletown/Monroe area, the company said Wednesday.
Boston Business Journal - 8/28/2008 - 5 hours 25 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Pittsburgh foreclosures fall 29 percent
The Pittsburgh area continued to dodge the worst of the housing crisis as foreclosures fell 29.1 percent for the five-county region in July.
Boston Business Journal - 8/28/2008 - 5 hours 25 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Job markets tighten as economy stutters
While competition intensifies among technology and financial services to recruit skilled workers, some companies are trying to retain older workers to make up for the shortage, according to a national survey.
Bizjournals Phoenix - 8/28/2008 - 5 hours 23 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Insurer backs refinance of Auburn medical office buildings
Cohen Financial, a national real estate capital services firm with a Sacramento office, announced this week it has secured a $4.8 million loan for the refinance of Bell Professional Plaza in Auburn.
Bizjournals Sacramento - 8/28/2008 - 5 hours 23 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Report: Job markets tighten as economy stutters
While competition intensifies among technology and financial services to recruit skilled workers, some companies are trying to retain older workers to make up for the shortage, according to a national survey.
Bizjournals Atlanta - 8/28/2008 - 5 hours 23 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Women’s hoops adds $19.1M to local economy
Women’s basketball was a boon to Tampa Bay last spring.
Bizjournals Tampa Bay - 8/28/2008 - 5 hours 23 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

State collects $73.5M less than expected in fiscal 2008
A sluggish economy and housing market continued to undercut nearly every source of tax revenue for the state over the past year, according to new figures from the comptroller's office.
Baltimore Sun Top Business - 8/28/2008 - 5 hours 23 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Federal Home Loan Bank supports projects in Phoenix, Ajo
The Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco is awarding $500,000 in Access to Housing and Economic Assistance for Development Program grants to help 15 of its member institutions support economic development and affordable housing projects.
Boston Business Journal - 8/28/2008 - 4 hours 5 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Manufacturing propels rise
Wall Street posted a big advance after the government reported a larger-than-expected increase in orders for big-ticket manufactured goods that indicated the economy is stronger than many investors thought.
Baltimore Sun Top Business - 8/28/2008 - 20 hours 2 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

U.S. thrifts lost $5.4 billion in 2nd quarter, set aside record amounts to cover bad loans, U.S. declares
U.S. thrifts lost $5.4 billion in the second quarter and set aside a record amount to cover losses from bad mortgages and other loans.
Baltimore Sun Top Business - 8/28/2008 - 20 hours 2 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Fannie Mae shakes up 3 top executive posts
Chief financial officer, 2 others to be replaced; 2 mortgage giants' stocks rise for 3rd day as fear of U.S. bailout recedes

Mortgage finance giant Fannie Mae shook up its executive ranks yesterday, after shares in it and sibling company Freddie Mac rose for a third straight day as investors appeared less certain a government bailout of the two troubled companies was imminent.
Baltimore Sun Top Business - 8/28/2008 - 20 hours 2 minutes ago - Comment on this Article




International News
China faces a new world order of trade
A spate of factors including a weak dollar, sluggish U.S. demand and high commodity prices have started to rebalance the trade accounts of China and the United States.
International Herald Tribune Business - 8/28/2008 - Comment on this Article

Daniel Mudd sticks as Fannie Mae gets shake-up
Daniel Mudd, chief executive of Fannie Mae, was told last night that he still has the confidence of the rest of the board, as the chairman of the US mortgage giant ousted his finance director and his head of risk.
Times of London Business - 8/28/2008 - Comment on this Article

Fannie Mae executive team axed to restore confidence
The head of America's largest mortgage finance house has restructured his senior team in an attempt to restore investor confidence amid continued speculation that it is on the verge of being nationalised by the US Treasury.
The Telegraph Business - 8/28/2008 - Comment on this Article

Bond fund titan seeks $5bn for mortgage-backed debts
Pimco, the manager of the world's largest bond fund, is looking to raise a $5bn (£2.7bn) fund to buy up tranches of depressed mortgage-backed debt.
The Telegraph Business - 8/28/2008 - Comment on this Article

U.S. 2nd quarter GDP revised sharply higher
The U.S. economy expanded at a 3.3 percent annual rate in the second quarter, a much stronger pace than was first reported, as consumer spending and net exports were more robust than initially estimated, a report showed Thursday.
International Herald Tribune Business - 8/28/2008 - 14 hours 44 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Exports push up US GDP to 3.3% pace
WASHINGTON (AFP) - The US economy defied predictions of a downturn in the the second quarter as exports helped growth accelerate to a 3.3-percent annualized pace, the government said Thursday.
AFP Wire Service - 8/28/2008 - 12 hours 43 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

German jobless rate falls further, but trend 'nearing end'
FRANKFURT (AFP) - German unemployment fell further in August, but the biggest European economy is flirting with recession and its job market will probably feel the effects later this year, analysts said Thursday.
AFP Wire Service - 8/28/2008 - 12 hours 43 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Chinese disease stalks orange groves of Florida
Real estate is not the only industry in Florida to be suffering from an economic blight. While the Sunshine State ranks as one of the foreclosure capitals of America, its huge citrus fruit industry is fighting a disease that threatens to devastate the orange business within a decade.
Times of London Business - 8/28/2008 - Comment on this Article

Optimism gushes from Petrofac despite slowdown and price falls
Oil services firm Petrofac insisted that demand for its operations remained "very strong" and that its full-year results would be at the top end of forecasts, despite the slowing global economy and a falling oil price.
The Telegraph Business - 8/28/2008 - Comment on this Article

Key American manufacturing indices show growth may be back
Hopes that the US economy is more resilient than feared have risen after two key manufacturing barometers registered increases.
The Telegraph Business - 8/28/2008 - Comment on this Article

Alliance & Leicester cuts some mortgage rates as hint of competition returns
Alliance & Leicester has cut the rates on some of its most popular home loans - signalling that competition may be creeping back into the mortgage market.
The Telegraph Business - 8/28/2008 - Comment on this Article

Nationwide says house prices falling fastest in 18 years
Grim evidence that the slide in the housing market is deepening emerged today as the Nationwide building society reported that prices were falling at their fastest annual rate in almost 18 years.
Times of London Business - 8/28/2008 - 20 hours 45 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Volatile market scares off super
HIGHER interest rates and a volatile share market have stemmed the rush of workers voluntarily contributing to their superannuation savings.
The Australian Business - 8/28/2008 - 10 hours 45 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Traders price in rate cut to head off UK recession
The majority of financial experts are now betting that the Bank of England will have to cut interest rates in the near future as it tries to avoid the onset of a deep recession in the UK.
The Telegraph Business - 8/28/2008 - 11 hours 59 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Deepening recession may throw Britain into full-year GDP fall
Britain's economy is set to shrink over the next year as a deepening recession inflicts the first full-year fall in national income since 1991, a leading forecasting group predicts today.
Times of London Business - 8/28/2008 - Comment on this Article

MPC dove Blancheflower to vote for rate cut
Two million Britons may be out of work by Christmas and big cuts in interest rates are needed now to stop the economy heading into a deep and prolonged slump, claims Bank of England policymaker David Blanchflower.
The Telegraph Business - 8/28/2008 - 11 hours 21 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Business shrugs off fear of slump
BUSINESS has stunned financial markets by reporting a surge of investment in the June quarter and canvassing plans that would lift spending by more than a third in 2008-09 in signs the Australian economy is defying international turbulence.
The Australian - 8/28/2008 - 10 hours 45 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

India Inc's investment plans to create 1.6 lakh jobs: ASSOCHAM
Sectors like textiles, IT, real estate, financial services are expected to create maximum job openings in the next few years, according to ASSOCHAM Investment Meter.
Times of India Business - 8/28/2008 - 10 hours 43 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

US GDP gets surprise boost from exports in second quarter
The US economy expanded faster than expected in the second quarter boosted by a rise in exports but that could change in the second half of the year as the country's trade partners slide into recession.
The Telegraph Business - 8/28/2008 - 10 hours ago - Comment on this Article

Diageo cuts profit target as economy slows
The group, which makes Johnnie Walker whisky, Smirnoff vodka and Guinness beer, said weakening economies in Europe prompted it to cut its target for operating profit growth for the year to June 2009 to a range of 7 to 9 percent from 9 percent.
International Herald Tribune Business - 8/28/2008 - 9 hours 25 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

POLITICS-US: Democrats Vow to Unite and Conquer
DENVER, Colorado, Aug 28 (IPS) - With Sen. Barack Obama's formal anointing as the first African American presidential nominee of a major political party in U.S. history, delegates to the 2008 Democratic National Convention in Denver say Obama can win in November on universal issues like the economy and health care.
IPS Top Stories - 8/28/2008 - 8 hours 42 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

US economy sees surprise 3.3 percent spurt
WASHINGTON (AFP) - The US economy outpaced expectations as surging exports fueled a second-quarter growth spurt at a 3.3 percent pace, according to data Thursday that analysts say makes recession less likely.
AFP Wire Service - 8/28/2008 - 7 hours 22 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Stocks surge on big revision to second-quarter U.S. gross domestic product
The dollar gained and U.S. stocks rallied more than 1 percent on Thursday on news of solid U.S. economic growth and a drop in oil prices despite the threat that powerful storm Gustav poses for the Gulf's energy infrastructure.
International Herald Tribune Business - 8/28/2008 - 6 hours 5 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Elderly face paying billions more for home help
Anyone with assets over £21000 including property has to pay for their own social care whether they live in a nursing home their own home or wardencontrolled sheltered housing.
The Telegraph UK News - 8/28/2008 - 3 hours 22 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Write-down limits profit growth at Bank of China
Bank of China posted the slowest profit growth among the nation's biggest lenders in the first half, weighed down by $405 million in second-quarter losses on U.S. subprime mortgage investments.
International Herald Tribune Business - 8/28/2008 - 16 hours 45 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Retail sales hit 25-year low as high food and fuel costs discourage shoppers
British retail sales plunged to a 25-year low in August as soaring food and fuel prices and the housing slump discouraged shoppers, the Confederation of British Industry said.
The Telegraph Business - 8/28/2008 - 15 hours 19 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Toyota joins other automarkers in warning of more troubles ahead
Even Toyota is not immune to the slowdown in the global economy.
International Herald Tribune - 8/28/2008 - 14 hours 44 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

US GDP rise gives false recovery hope
The American economy was more robust in the second quarter than previously reported, according to revised figures which show that gross domestic product for the period was 3.3 per cent, ahead of previous estimates of 1.9 per cent.
Times of London Business - 8/28/2008 - 12 hours 5 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Rupee ends weaker as oil rises
The rupee has weakened as a rise in oil prices sparked dollar buying from refiners, and then steadied as exporters thought the currency was good value and on worries the central bank would step in to stem losses.
Times of India Business - 8/28/2008 - 12 hours 3 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Bank of China beats forecasts
Bank of China posted a 15 percent increase in second-quarter profit, as it worked to offset its exposure to U.S. subprime-related holdings.
International Herald Tribune - 8/28/2008 - 14 hours 5 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Malaysia's Anwar rejoins parliament, heads opposition
KUALA LUMPUR (Reuters) - Malaysia's leading opposition figure Anwar Ibrahim, a former deputy premier, rejoined parliament on Thursday, bringing him closer to his ambition of toppling the government and reforming the economy.
Reuters International - 8/28/2008 - 14 hours 4 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

CBA confirms buying stake in Aussie
COMMONWEALTH Bank of Australia said today it would acquire a 33 per cent stake in mortgage broker Aussie Home Loans.
The Australian Business - 8/28/2008 - 5 minutes ago - Comment on this Article




Blogesphere News
Crashachusetts Existing Home Sales and Prices: July 2008
Yesterday, the Massachusetts Association of Realtors (MAR) released their Existing Home Sales Report for July again showing a continued deterioration of the regions residential housing market.

As was noted last month, with July comes the start of the seasonal deceleration in single family home sales that will generally continue through the Fall before concluding the following February.

With this drop-off will come additional pricing pressure as sellers compete for the scanty remains of the 2008 selling season.

With the report the Massachusetts Realtor leader Susan Renfrew attempts to backpedal from the ridiculous and overly optimistic sentiment spun last month.

“While there has been some positive change in the fact that sales declines narrowed in July compared to other months this year, the economy continues to keep some buyers out of the market,”

MAR reports that in July, single family home sales slumped 10.0% as compared to July 2007 with a 7.0% decline in inventory translating to 8.8 months of supply and a median selling price decline of 10.7% while condo sales dropped 6.7% with a 13.0% decline in inventory translating to 8.0 months of supply and a median selling price decline of 2.9%.


The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index for Boston, which is the most accurate indicator of the true price movement for single family homes, showed continued weakness with Boston declining 5.24% as compared to July 2007 leaving prices now 11.03% below the peak set in September 2005.

To better illustrate the drop-off in home prices and the potential length and depth of the current housing decline, I have compared BOTH the normalized price movement and peak percentage changes to the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index for Boston (BOXR) from the 80s-90s housing bust to today’s bust.


The “normalized” chart compares the normalized Boston price index from the peak of the 80s-90s bust to the peak of today’s bust.

Notice that during the 80s-90s bust prices took roughly 46 months (3.8 years) to bottom out.

The “peak” chart compares the percentage change, comparing monthly Boston index values to the peak value seen just prior to the first declining month all the way through the downturn and the full recovery of home prices.

In this way, this chart captures ALL months of the downturn from the peak to trough to peak again.

As you can see the last downturn lasted 105 months (almost 9 years) peak to peak including 34 months of annual price declines during the heart of the downturn.

The final chart shows that the Boston housing market has been, in a sense, declining steadily since early 2001 when annual home price appreciation peaked and the intensity of the housing expansion began to wane (click on following chart for larger version).

It appears that that the main thrust of the housing expansion occurred “in-line” with the wider economic expansion that was fueled primarily by the dot-com bubble and that since the dot-com bust, the housing market has never been quite the same.

As in months past, be on the lookout for the inflation adjusted charts produced by BostonBubble.com for an even more accurate "real" view of the current home price movement.

July’s key MAR statistics:

Single family sales declined 10.0% as compared to July 2007Single family median price decreased 10.7% as compared to July 2007Condo sales declined 6.7% as compared to July 2007Condo median price decline of 2.9% as compared to July 2007The number of months supply of single family homes stands at 8.8 months.The number of months supply of condos stands at 8.0 months.The average “days on market” for single family homes stands at 129 days.The average “days on market” for condos stands at 139 days.
Paper Economy - 8/28/2008 - 21 hours 21 minutes ago - Comment on this Article



Housing Panic - 8/28/2008 - 20 hours 42 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

HousingPANIC would like to know if Cato Institute Housing Bubble denier Alan Reynolds has any more words of wisdom for the world

Why were so many 'smart' people so dumb?

Seriously?

I understand corrupt people (like realtors) denying the bubble. But economists and self-appointed think-tank gurus who didn't see it, well, they simply should be put out to pasture. Never to be listened to again.

Alan Reynolds, we await your mea-culpa. Make it a good one, OK?

(thanks Stephen for the link)

No Housing Bubble Trouble, by Alan Reynolds

Alan Reynolds is a senior fellow with the Cato Institute and a nationally syndicated columnist.

January 9, 2005

The start of each year is prime time for economic pessimists, who try to persuade us terrible things are about to happen. A perennial favorite is the "housing bubble" about to burst, with a supposedly devastating impact on household wealth. This has been repeatedly recycled since June 2002 by bearish economic forecasters like Ed Leamer of University of California-Los Angeles and Stephen Roach of Morgan Stanley.

House prices did not just "bubble" for no reason. The discounted present value of housing rose because 30-year mortgage rates fell from 9.2 percent in December 1994 to 5.8 percent in December 2004 (no, not because of a budget surplus). The drop in world interest rates raised home prices even more in foreign cities like London, Dublin and Sydney.

"Housing bubble" worrywarts have long been hopelessly confused. It would have been financially foolhardy to listen to them in 2002. It still is.
Housing Panic - 8/28/2008 - 17 hours 15 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Ron Paul throws the Fed and the GOP under the bus on CNN
I support Ron Paul 100%. Picking between Obama and McCain was picking the best of what was left.But America doesn't support Ron Paul. Nor will they in his lifetime. The empire is failing, and the people chose to let it happen.Here's Ron Paul speaking the truth on the Fed, the two parties, and Russia/Georgia among other things. Truth you won't hear from Dems or Reps. Truth you especially won't hear from McCain.Damn, I wish he'd run as an independent, just to get into the debates. Ron Paul has as much to do with the current GOP as Santa Claus has to do with Islam. I bet he's not even let in the door of the GOP convention next week.
Housing Panic - 8/28/2008 - 7 hours 18 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

'Beginning of the End of the Sacramento Housing Crash'
From the Sacramento Bee:After years of gloomy forecasts and despite a still-declining real estate market, something new is creeping into the housing forecasts: Hope. It's a sense that economists can see outlines of an emerging bottom.
...
"We are at the beginning of the end of the Sacramento housing crash," he [Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Economy.com] said late Wednesday..."Prices will resume rising again early in the next decade."...Zandi said another 5 percent to 10 percent declines in home prices will "restore housing affordability" in Sacramento and coax more first-time buyers back into the market.
...
Concerns still exist however, about foreclosures, which still haven't peaked in the Sacramento region. Scott Thompson, a partner at Citrus Heights-based Mortgage Resolution Services, said he thinks a shortage of buyers will begin to show late this year. "I think we are plowing through all the good buyers who are enthusiastically in the market. We're going to get to November and be at the end of the buyer pool," he said.
Sacramento Land(ing) - 8/28/2008 - 5 hours 22 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Leslie Appleton-Young, who lied and spun her way through the Great California Housing Crash, keeps the happy talk going
Well, she could always teach a class "Why People Despise and Disrespect realtors 101". Lawrence Yun and David Lereah could do guest lectures.

Housing Panic - 8/28/2008 - 17 hours 15 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Oh, and while you weren't looking, thanks to the Housing Gambler Bailout Act of 2008, the US Debt Ceiling just got raised by another $800,000,000,000.

I blame the voters. I blame the American people.

Your children, and their children, and their children, and their children, and their children are going to hate you.

This economic behavior is shameful, it's immoral, it's corrupt, it's unpatriotic, it's self-centered and it's disgusting.

Never have the voters of the United States, through their government, acted so immorally and so unethically. Future generations will be disgusted by this generation of grotesque, consumption-crazed, debt-addicted Americans.

To make room for the bailout, the bill raises the federal government’s debt ceiling by $800 billion to $10.6 trillion.

This increases the cushion between the debt limit and the current federal debt to $1.1 trillion. The legislation thus opens the way for a government bailout of Wall Street that would make the $160 billion rescue of the savings and loan industry in the late 1980s and early 1990s pale in comparison.
Housing Panic - 8/28/2008 - 17 hours 15 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

John Kerry threw McCain under the bus pretty good last night... I guess getting swift-boated by Karl Rove wakes you up (too late)

Housing Panic - 8/28/2008 - 16 hours 39 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Here's Peter Schiff on the commodities meltdown, the gold gutting and the dollar rise... Agree or Disagree?
Over the last few months, as the dollar rose more than 10% against a basket of other currencies, and as gold and oil sank to multi-month lows, many investors concluded that a threshold had been crossed, and that the bearish trend for the dollar and the bullish trends for commodities had finally come to an end. But rather than representing a sea change, these counter trend moves more likely signify that the established trends are about to kick it into a whole new gear. My take is that if you thought you had seen a bear market in the dollar and bull market in gold, oil, and other commodities, well, “you ain’t seen nothing yet”.

Corrections are often vicious, designed to shake loose as many investors as possible prior to a major move. The best bull markets carry as little excess baggage as possible. With few speculators on board to sell into every rally, the true believers who remain can receive the full benefit of a fundamental upswing. Violent downward moves also force out those that were too highly leveraged, or those who showed up late to the party with little understanding of the true fundamentals. Those who panicked and jumped out too low often scramble to reestablish positions at higher prices, further fueling the bull market.

This recent correction saw the most dramatic change in sentiment that I have ever witnessed. But the head fake that caused the market to commit was in fact not worthy of a high school benchwarmer. With absolutely no significant developments that could explain either a bottom in the dollar, or a top in commodities, investors placed their faith in price moments alone. Once the numbers started to show some retrograde motion, everyone simply assumed that a real change had taken place, and the momentum buying and selling began. The rapid movement reveals how clueless participants in these trades had become. Even those fund managers that seem to understand the fundamentals were fooled by the sharp price movements and the rhetoric they spawned.
Housing Panic - 8/28/2008 - 15 hours 19 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

More Banks in Danger of Failure
CNN Money reports that the FDIC's list of troubled banks is still growing and expected to keep growing in the future.
The number of troubled banks on the government's watch list grew dramatically last quarter.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. reported Tuesday that the number of firms on its so-called problem bank list grew to 117 during the second quarter — its highest level since the middle of 2003. There were 90 banks on the problem list in the first quarter.

FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair expressed little surprise at the increase and warned that the number would grow.

"More banks will come on the list as credit problems worsen and assets of problem institutions will continue to rise," said Bair in a press conference.

The number of troubled institutions has moved steadily higher this year - nearly doubling from 61 at the same time a year ago - as banks across the country struggle to cope with the fallout in the housing market and rising loan losses.
Bubble Meter - 8/28/2008 - 14 hours 38 minutes ago - Comment on this Article

Mid-Cycle Meltdown?: Jobless Claims August 28 2008
Today, the Department of Labor released their latest read of Joblessness showing seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims declined 10,000 to 425,000 from last week’s revised 435,000 claims while “continued” claims increased 64,000 resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.6%.

It’s very important to understand that today’s report continues to reflect employment weakness that is strongly consistent with past recessionary episodes and that this signal is now so strong and sustained that a contraction in the economy is fundamentally certain.

Historically, unemployment claims both “initial” and “continued” (ongoing claims) are a good leading indicator of the unemployment rate and inevitably the overall state of the economy.

The following chart (click for larger version) shows “initial” and “continued” claims, averaged monthly, overlaid with U.S. recessions since 1967 and from 2000.

NOTE: The charts below plot a “monthly” average NOT a 4 week moving average so the latest monthly results should be considered preliminary until the complete monthly results are settled by the fourth week of each following month.

As you can see, acceleration to claims generally precedes recessions.


Also, acceleration and deceleration of unemployment claims has generally preceded comparable movements to the unemployment rate by 3 – 8 months (click for larger version).


In the above charts you can see, especially for the last three post-recession periods, that there has generally been a steep decline in unemployment claims and the unemployment rate followed by a “flattening” period of employment and subsequently followed by even further declines to unemployment as growth accelerated.

This flattening period demarks the “mid-cycle slowdown” where for various reasons growth has generally slowed but then resumed with even stronger growth.

So, looking at the post-“dot com” recession period we can see the telltale signs of a potential “mid-cycle” slowdown and if we were to simply reflect on the history of employment as an indicator of the health and potential outlook for the wider economy, it would not be irrational to conclude that times may be brighter in the very near future.

But, adding a little more data I think shows that we may in fact be experiencing a period of economic growth unlike the past several post-recession periods.

Look at the following chart (click for larger version) showing “initial” and “continued” unemployment claims, the ratio of non-farm payrolls to non-institutional population and single family building permits since 1967.

One notable feature of the post-“dot com” recession era that is, unlike other recent post-recession eras, job growth has been very weak, not succeeding to reach trend growth as had minimally accomplished in the past.

Another feature is that housing was apparently buffeted by